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2/27/17
$450,000,000
California Infra Econ Dev Bk
Co-Senior Manager 2018-2036
2/27/17
$20,000,000
El Rancho UFSD
Senior Manager Serials 2018-2037 Terms 2042 2046 BAM Insured
2/27/17
$390,895,000
New York City Muni Wtr Fin Auth
Co-Manager 2033-2039 Series EE

Insights

CREDIT AND MARKET STRATEGY
MUNICIPAL MARKET WEEKLY

February 13, 2017

Beware of Trump and Inflation

Weekly Recap

The Trump “reflation” trade was re-ignited Thurs/Fri last week after the President announced that a “phenomenal” tax reform plan is in the works, causing bonds to sell off, the dollar to strengthen, and equities to reach all-time highs. Partly due to fund flows of $304 mil., Munis ended the week stronger overall and outperformed Treasuries inside 10 years (1-7 ratios), although this belies the otherwise...

Trump's Tax Plan: Phenomenal for Munis?

We said a few weeks ago that Munis were fairly valued to somewhat cheap in spots with some room to outperform, particularly if the market significantly underperforms for a week or two. Given (mostly) outperformance since that time, especially inside 10 yrs, we now say that Munis are simply fairly valued on both a 1 yr and 3 yr basis. The 5 yr ratio is now at 80%, or 10 ratios away from bargain pricing (~90%). Muni performance from here, at least near term, depends on...


Full Weekly Report

Quarterly Review

SAMUEL A RAMIREZ & COMPANY, INC.
QUARTERLY MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
FINANCIAL STRATEGIES GROUP – 4th QUARTER 2016

Dear Clients,

Please find attached Ramirez & Co.’s Quarterly Macroeconomic Outlook. In our report, we continue to monitor the US economy, global events and the Fed’s outlook on the economy and rates:

  • The unexpected outcome of the US presidential election has profound effects on the markets, domestically and internationally.  In the long term, US bond markets anticipate heightened growth and inflation.  The equity markets take off, with small caps and financials leading the way.  Internationally, sovereign rates in Japan and Europe climb into positive territory in the 10-year maturities
  • Major banks, the Fed and the markets raise their rates expectations for 2017 and beyond, with the Wall Street banks and markets slightly below the Fed’s forecasts.  The Fed anticipates three 25 bps hikes in 2017, while the major banks anticipate two.
  • Business and household surveys begin to reflect pro-growth fiscal and economic reforms, but the passing and long-term effects remain unclear.

Members of our Financial Strategies Group, Niso Abuaf, Konstantin Semyonov and Duncan Sinclair, would be happy to discuss further any of the material with you.

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